---
name: strategic-hypothesis-framer
description: "Reformulates a loosely defined strategic question into a crisp problem statement, a MECE issue tree with testable hypothesis branches, prioritized workstreams, and the key questions each branch must answer — applying the Pyramid Principle and issue-tree decomposition. Use when structuring an ambiguous strategic problem, scoping a strategy engagement, framing a board-level question, or turning a vague business challenge into an analyzable work plan."
argument-hint: "[strategic-question] [context]"
allowed-tools: ["Read"]
---

# Strategic Hypothesis Framer

## Purpose
Turn a vague strategic question into a rigorously structured problem: a single sharp problem statement, a MECE issue tree, prioritized hypothesis branches, and the specific questions each branch must resolve — so a team can move immediately from "we're not sure what the real question is" to a defensible, analyzable work plan.

## When to Use
Invoke this skill when the user asks to:
- Structure or scope an ambiguous strategic problem before analysis begins
- Turn a board or CEO question ("should we expand into X?") into a work plan
- Build an issue tree, hypothesis tree, or MECE decomposition
- Frame a strategy engagement, workstream plan, or diligence scope
- Sharpen a loosely worded business challenge into a testable set of hypotheses
- Prioritize where a team should spend analytical effort first

## Inputs Required
Before starting, collect:
- **The strategic question**: The problem or question as currently stated, in the user's words
- **Business context**: Company, industry, size, and relevant situation (1–3 sentences)
- **Decision at stake**: What decision this analysis will inform, and who makes it
- **Success criteria**: What a good answer must satisfy (financial, strategic, risk thresholds)
- **Known constraints**: Time, budget, resources, or options already ruled in/out
- **Existing hypotheses or beliefs**: Any prior views held by the user or stakeholders
- **Time horizon**: Decision deadline and the timeframe the strategy addresses

If decision-maker or success criteria are missing, infer reasonable defaults from context and flag the assumption explicitly.

## Instructions

### Step 1: Sharpen the Core Question
Restate the loosely defined input as a single, decision-oriented problem statement.
- Convert open musings into one closed, answerable question with a clear subject, action, and success threshold
- Apply the SCQ frame (Situation → Complication → Question): establish the stable context, the change that forces a decision, and the resulting question
- Distinguish the *real* question from the *presenting* question — the presenting question is often a symptom
- Test the statement: it must be specific enough that a "yes/no" or a bounded set of options is conceivable

Output one primary question plus a one-line note on what the original framing missed, if anything.

### Step 2: Choose the Decomposition Logic
Select the issue-tree structure that fits the question type:
- **Diagnostic tree** (why is X happening?): decompose by cause categories
- **Options tree** (should we do A, B, or C?): decompose by mutually exclusive choices
- **Value-driver tree** (how do we improve X?): decompose by the levers that move the metric
- **Feasibility tree** (can we do X, and how?): decompose by desirability / viability / feasibility

State which structure you chose and why in one sentence.

### Step 3: Build the MECE Issue Tree
Decompose the core question into 3–5 first-level branches that are **Mutually Exclusive and Collectively Exhaustive**.
- Each branch is a sub-question that, if answered, contributes to answering the parent
- No overlap between branches; no material gap in coverage
- Under each first-level branch, add 2–4 second-level sub-branches
- Run a MECE check on each level: could two branches both claim the same issue? Is anything material uncovered?
- Keep the tree to 2 levels unless a branch genuinely requires a third

### Step 4: Convert Branches to Testable Hypotheses
For each first-level branch, state a **falsifiable hypothesis** — a claim that could be proven true or false with evidence, not a topic to "explore."
- Frame as a declarative assertion (e.g., "Margin decline is driven primarily by input-cost inflation, not pricing erosion")
- For each hypothesis, list the 2–3 **key questions** that must be answered to confirm or reject it
- For each key question, name the **evidence or analysis** that would resolve it (data source, model, or test)

### Step 5: Prioritize Workstreams
Rank the branches into a sequenced work plan using two axes:
- **Impact on the decision**: how much this branch swings the recommendation (High / Medium / Low)
- **Speed to resolve**: how quickly it can be answered with available data (Fast / Moderate / Slow)
Prioritize High-impact / Fast-to-resolve branches first — these are the "critical few" that may make later workstreams unnecessary. Flag any branch that is a potential deal-breaker (if false, the whole initiative fails) as a Priority 1 gate regardless of speed.

### Step 6: Assemble the Pyramid
Present the answer top-down per the Pyramid Principle:
- **Governing thought** at the top: the core question and how it will be answered
- **Key line** beneath it: the first-level branches as the supporting argument
- **Supporting detail** below: hypotheses, key questions, and evidence
Confirm the logic flows: do the branches, taken together, fully support resolving the governing question?

## Output Format
- **Structure**: Top-down pyramid — sharpened problem statement, then the issue tree, then hypotheses with key questions, then the prioritized workstream plan
- **Length**: 800–1,200 words
- **Format**: Structured document with a nested/indented issue tree, a hypothesis-and-key-questions table, and a ranked workstream list
- **Sections**: Sharpened Problem Statement (with SCQ) → Decomposition Logic Chosen → MECE Issue Tree → Hypotheses & Key Questions → Prioritized Workstreams → One-Page Pyramid Summary
- **Tone**: Senior strategy consultant — precise, structured, intellectually honest; flags assumptions and gaps rather than papering over them

## Quality Checklist
Before delivering output, verify:
- [ ] The problem statement is a single closed question, not an open topic
- [ ] First-level branches pass a MECE check — no overlap, no material gap (state the check explicitly)
- [ ] Every branch is expressed as a falsifiable hypothesis, not a "explore X" topic
- [ ] Each hypothesis has 2–3 key questions and a named evidence source for each
- [ ] Workstreams are ranked on both impact and speed, with any deal-breaker flagged as a Priority 1 gate
- [ ] The pyramid summary shows branches collectively supporting the governing question

## Notes
- The most common failure is answering the presenting question when the real question sits one level up — always test whether the stated question is a symptom
- MECE is a discipline, not a decoration: if two branches could both claim the same finding, the tree will produce double-counted or contradictory conclusions
- Prioritization exists to avoid boiling the ocean — a well-framed problem usually has 1–2 critical branches that determine the answer; front-load those
- When a hypothesis is a potential deal-breaker, resolving it early can save the entire downstream effort

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## How to use this skill

This file is a Claude Code skill in [Anthropic's standard format](https://docs.anthropic.com/en/docs/claude-code/skills) — markdown with YAML frontmatter at the top.

**Installing in Claude Code:**
- `~/.claude/skills/<folder-name>/SKILL.md` — auto-loads in every session anywhere on your machine (recommended for skills you'll use across multiple projects)
- `<your-project>/.claude/skills/<folder-name>/SKILL.md` — auto-loads only when working in that project (recommended for project-specific skills)

Restart Claude Code or open a new session to register.

**Using in Claude.ai, ChatGPT, Gemini, or other AI tools:**

1. Drag this file into a new chat, or copy and paste its contents
2. Send your task or request as your next message — the AI will apply the skill where it fits

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