---
name: funding-sustainability-assessment-by-program
description: "Evaluates the funding sustainability of each program in a nonprofit portfolio — scoring revenue concentration risk, grant dependency, earned revenue potential, and funder alignment — then flags at-risk programs and recommends specific diversification moves. Use when assessing which programs are financially vulnerable, preparing for a budget or board strategy conversation, evaluating whether a program can survive the loss of a major funder, or building a revenue diversification plan across a program portfolio."
argument-hint: "[program-list] [revenue-data]"
allowed-tools: ["Read"]
---

# Funding Sustainability Assessment by Program

## Purpose
Produce a program-by-program funding sustainability assessment that scores each program on concentration risk, grant dependency, earned revenue potential, and funder alignment — surfacing which programs are one grant away from collapse and what diversification moves would stabilize them. Replaces gut-feel "which programs are safe?" conversations with a defensible, board-ready risk picture.

## When to Use
Invoke this skill when the user asks to:
- Assess which programs are financially at risk or overly dependent on a single funder
- Evaluate whether a program could survive losing its largest grant
- Build a revenue diversification plan across the program portfolio
- Prepare a funding risk analysis for a board, finance committee, or strategic plan
- Decide which programs to invest in, sunset, or restructure based on funding stability
- Understand the organization's overall exposure to grant dependency

## Inputs Required
Before starting, collect:
- **Program list**: The programs to assess, with a one-line description of each
- **Revenue by program**: Annual revenue per program, broken down by source (grants, individual giving, earned/fee revenue, government contracts, events, etc.)
- **Top funders per program**: The 2–4 largest funders for each program and the dollar amount or % each represents
- **Grant renewal status**: Which grants are multi-year vs. one-time, and known renewal timelines or at-risk relationships
- **Earned revenue context**: Any fees, contracts, or sales the program generates or could plausibly generate
- **Mission/funder alignment notes**: Any funders whose priorities are drifting from the program's work
- **Organizational context**: Total budget size, reserve level, and any strategic priorities among programs

If revenue breakdowns are incomplete, assess what's provided and explicitly flag which programs need better data before a final judgment.

## Instructions

### Step 1: Build the Program Funding Profile
For each program, assemble a compact profile:
- Total annual revenue and % of organizational budget
- Revenue mix by source (% grants / % earned / % individual / % government / % other)
- Largest single funder as a % of the program's revenue (the **concentration ratio**)
- Number of distinct funding sources

This profile is the foundation for every score below. Present it as a table so patterns across programs are visible at a glance.

### Step 2: Score Concentration Risk
Measure exposure to any single funder failing.
- **Low risk**: No single source exceeds 25% of program revenue; 4+ meaningful sources
- **Moderate risk**: Largest source is 25–50% of revenue; 3 meaningful sources
- **High risk**: Largest source is 50–75% of revenue; 2 sources
- **Critical risk**: Single source exceeds 75%, or program is effectively single-funder

Name the specific funder driving the risk and state the dollar exposure if that funder walks.

### Step 3: Score Grant Dependency
Assess reliance on restricted, time-limited grant money.
- Calculate % of program revenue from competitive/foundation grants (as opposed to recurring, unrestricted, or earned sources)
- Flag whether grants are **multi-year (more stable)** or **one-time (higher risk)**
- Identify any grant that, if not renewed, drops the program below break-even
- **Dependency levels**: Low (<30% grant-funded), Moderate (30–60%), High (60–85%), Severe (>85%)
- Note the renewal cliff: the calendar quarter when the largest at-risk grant expires

### Step 4: Assess Earned Revenue Potential
Evaluate the program's capacity to generate self-sustaining income.
- Current earned revenue as a % of program budget
- Realistic earned-revenue pathways for this program type (fee-for-service, contracts, membership, licensing, sliding-scale fees, social enterprise)
- Feasibility rating: **High / Medium / Low / Not viable** — with the constraint that limits it (mission fit, market demand, capacity, regulatory)
- The single most promising earned-revenue move for this program

### Step 5: Evaluate Funder Alignment
Assess whether current funders' priorities still match the program.
- For each major funder: is their stated funding priority converging with, holding steady on, or drifting from this program's work?
- Flag **misaligned funders** — those likely to reduce or exit within 1–2 cycles regardless of program performance
- Note any strategic funders whose alignment is strong enough to deepen the relationship

### Step 6: Assign a Composite Sustainability Rating
Roll the four dimensions into a single per-program rating:
- **Stable**: Diversified sources, low grant dependency, some earned revenue, aligned funders
- **Watch**: One meaningful vulnerability (usually concentration or grant dependency) but not imminent
- **At Risk**: Two or more vulnerabilities, or a renewal cliff within 12 months
- **Critical**: Single-funder dependency, severe grant reliance, or a major misaligned/exiting funder with no backfill

State the rating plainly and the one factor most responsible for it.

### Step 7: Recommend Diversification Moves
For each program rated Watch, At Risk, or Critical, provide 2–4 specific, prioritized actions:
- The diversification lever (new funder type, earned revenue launch, individual giving, government contract, funder mix rebalance)
- Why this lever fits this specific program
- A rough sequencing note (immediate / this fiscal year / next 12–24 months)
Prioritize by how quickly the move reduces the program's most severe risk.

### Step 8: Synthesize Portfolio-Level Findings
Close with the whole-portfolio view:
- Which programs are the organization's funding anchors vs. its liabilities
- Total organizational exposure to the single largest funder across all programs
- The 3 highest-priority actions across the entire portfolio, ranked by risk reduction

## Output Format
- **Structure**: Program funding profile table → per-program assessment cards → portfolio synthesis
- **Length**: 1,000–1,500 words (scales with program count)
- **Format**: A summary table plus structured per-program sections; portfolio findings as ranked bullets
- **Sections**: Funding Profile Table → Per-Program Assessments (each with the four scores, composite rating, and recommended moves) → Portfolio-Level Findings & Top 3 Priorities
- **Tone**: Development strategist advising an ED — direct, financially literate, willing to name a program as at-risk without softening

## Quality Checklist
Before delivering output, verify:
- [ ] Every program received all four dimension scores plus a composite sustainability rating
- [ ] Concentration risk names the specific funder and states the dollar exposure if lost
- [ ] Grant dependency identifies the renewal cliff (which quarter the key grant expires)
- [ ] Each Watch/At Risk/Critical program has 2–4 prioritized, program-specific diversification moves — not generic advice
- [ ] The portfolio synthesis states total exposure to the single largest funder across all programs
- [ ] Programs with insufficient data are explicitly flagged rather than scored on guesses

## Notes
- Concentration risk is the most common blind spot: a program can look healthy on total revenue while being one board-relationship away from collapse — always compute the single-funder exposure.
- Earned revenue is often over-recommended for programs where it isn't mission-viable; rate feasibility honestly rather than defaulting to "add a fee."
- Multi-year grants create a false sense of stability — the risk isn't this year, it's the renewal cliff, so surface it early enough to act.
- When two programs share a major funder, that funder's exit is a portfolio-level event, not a single-program problem; make sure the synthesis catches cross-program concentration.

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## How to use this skill

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