---
name: engineering-effort-to-outcome-scorer
description: "Scores a backlog or sprint candidate list on a two-axis impact-versus-effort model, assigns each item a quadrant (Quick Win, Big Bet, Fill-In, Money Pit), produces a ranked priority order, and flags low-value work to cut. Use when triaging a backlog, planning a sprint, deciding what to build next, or defending a prioritization decision to stakeholders."
argument-hint: "[work-items] [team-goal]"
allowed-tools: ["Read"]
---

# Engineering Effort-to-Outcome Scorer

## Purpose
Score a list of proposed work items on business impact versus engineering effort, sort them into a defensible priority order, and surface the low-value work that should be cut — so an engineering manager walks out of triage with a ranked list, not a debate.

## When to Use
Invoke this skill when the user asks to:
- Triage a backlog and decide what to keep, defer, or kill
- Choose what goes into the next sprint from a candidate list
- Rank competing feature requests or tech-debt items
- Justify why a low-value item is being deprioritized to stakeholders
- Compare a "quick fix" against a larger investment on the same goal
- Cut a bloated backlog down to the items that actually move a metric

## Inputs Required
Before starting, collect:
- **Work items**: The list of candidates — one line each (feature, bug, tech debt, request)
- **Team goal**: The outcome this team is accountable for this quarter (e.g., reduce churn, increase activation, ship platform stability)
- **Time horizon**: Sprint, quarter, or "next thing we pick up"
- **Team capacity**: Approximate engineer-weeks available, or team size
- **Known dependencies or constraints**: Anything that blocks or forces sequencing
- **Existing estimates** (optional): Any effort estimates already attached to items

If effort estimates are missing, infer a relative t-shirt size (S/M/L/XL) per item and state the assumption explicitly so the manager can correct it.

## Instructions

### Step 1: Define the Impact Axis Against the Team Goal
Score each item's **Business Impact** 1–5, anchored to the stated team goal — not generic "niceness."
- **5** — Directly moves the team's primary metric; measurable within the horizon
- **4** — Strong indirect contribution or unblocks a high-impact item
- **3** — Real value but tangential to the primary goal
- **2** — Marginal; quality-of-life or low-frequency improvement
- **1** — No clear line to the goal; "someone asked for it"

For each score, write one sentence naming the specific metric or outcome affected. If an item has no traceable line to the goal, score it 1 or 2 — do not inflate.

### Step 2: Define the Effort Axis
Score each item's **Engineering Effort** 1–5, where higher means more costly.
- **1** — Hours; trivial, well-understood
- **2** — A day or two; low risk
- **3** — Several days to a week; some unknowns
- **4** — Multi-week; cross-component or coordination required
- **5** — Multi-sprint; high uncertainty, research, or migration

Factor in hidden effort: testing, migration, review load, and operational risk — not just keyboard time. Note any item where effort is uncertain (flag as "estimate volatile").

### Step 3: Assign Each Item a Quadrant
Plot impact against effort and label the quadrant:
- **Quick Win** — High impact (4–5), Low effort (1–2): do first
- **Big Bet** — High impact (4–5), High effort (3–5): plan, sequence, resource deliberately
- **Fill-In** — Low impact (1–3), Low effort (1–2): batch when capacity allows; never displaces a Big Bet
- **Money Pit** — Low impact (1–3), High effort (3–5): cut or explicitly defer — these are the items to kill

### Step 4: Compute a Priority Score and Rank
For each item, compute **Priority Score = Impact ÷ Effort** (round to two decimals). Rank all items descending. Use the quadrant to break ties and sanity-check the math:
- A Money Pit should never outrank a Quick Win regardless of arithmetic
- If a high-score item has a hard dependency, note that it cannot start until the blocker clears

### Step 5: Build the Cut List
Explicitly list the items recommended for cutting or indefinite deferral (all Money Pits, plus any Fill-In that has aged or duplicates a higher-ranked item). For each, give a one-line reason a stakeholder will accept (e.g., "No path to the activation metric; 3 engineer-weeks better spent on Quick Win #2").

### Step 6: Produce the Sprint/Horizon Recommendation
Given team capacity, recommend what fits in the stated horizon:
- Fill capacity from the ranked list top-down, respecting dependencies
- State remaining capacity after each item to show the math
- Call out the one item the manager should defend hardest if challenged, and the one most likely to get cut under pressure

## Output Format
- **Structure**: Scoring table → quadrant grouping → cut list → horizon recommendation
- **Length**: 700–1,100 words depending on item count
- **Format**: A scored table (Item | Impact | Effort | Quadrant | Priority Score | Note), followed by short prose sections
- **Sections**: Scored Table → Ranked Priority Order → Cut List → Sprint/Horizon Recommendation → The One You'll Have to Defend
- **Tone**: Decisive engineering manager — quantified, opinionated, willing to name what to kill

## Quality Checklist
Before delivering output, verify:
- [ ] Every input work item appears in the scored table exactly once
- [ ] Each impact score names the specific metric or outcome it ties to
- [ ] Each item has a quadrant label consistent with its impact/effort scores
- [ ] Priority Score = Impact ÷ Effort is computed and items are ranked descending
- [ ] No Money Pit outranks a Quick Win in the final order
- [ ] The cut list is non-empty (or it explicitly states why nothing should be cut)
- [ ] The horizon recommendation respects the stated capacity and shows remaining capacity

## Notes
- The most common failure in triage is impact inflation — every stakeholder believes their item is a 5. Anchoring impact strictly to the team's one stated goal is what makes this useful.
- Effort estimates are the weakest input; treat "estimate volatile" flags as a prompt to ask one engineer before committing a Big Bet.
- Quick Wins should ship before Big Bets even when a Big Bet has higher raw impact — early momentum and capacity reclaimed from Quick Wins often fund the bet.
- If two items target the same metric, note whether they're additive or redundant; redundant lower-ranked items belong on the cut list.

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## How to use this skill

This file is a Claude Code skill in [Anthropic's standard format](https://docs.anthropic.com/en/docs/claude-code/skills) — markdown with YAML frontmatter at the top.

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Restart Claude Code or open a new session to register.

**Using in Claude.ai, ChatGPT, Gemini, or other AI tools:**

1. Drag this file into a new chat, or copy and paste its contents
2. Send your task or request as your next message — the AI will apply the skill where it fits

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