--- name: climate-risk-assessor description: "Identifies and scores physical and transition climate risks for a business across short, medium, and long-term horizons, aligned to the TCFD framework, and delivers a prioritized risk register with likelihood ratings, financial impact estimates, and mitigation recommendations. Use when conducting a climate risk assessment, preparing TCFD-aligned disclosures, building a climate risk register, or quantifying physical and transition exposure for strategy and reporting." argument-hint: "[industry] [geographies]" allowed-tools: ["Read"] --- # Climate Risk Assessor ## Purpose Produce a TCFD-aligned climate risk register that names the specific physical and transition risks a business faces, scores each by likelihood and financial impact, and pairs every material risk with a concrete mitigation. Replaces vague "we should think about climate" conversations with a defensible, board-ready risk inventory. ## When to Use Invoke this skill when the user asks to: - Conduct a climate risk assessment for a company, division, or asset portfolio - Build a climate risk register aligned to TCFD - Prepare physical and transition risk disclosures for an annual report or ESG filing - Quantify financial exposure to climate scenarios (e.g., 1.5°C, 2°C, 4°C pathways) - Identify which climate risks are material and which mitigations to prioritize - Brief a board or audit committee on climate risk exposure ## Inputs Required Before starting, collect: - **Industry/sector**: The primary business activity (e.g., food manufacturing, real estate, logistics) - **Key geographies**: Where operations, facilities, and major suppliers are located - **Asset base**: Owned facilities, leased sites, critical infrastructure, or asset-light model - **Supply chain exposure**: Key inputs, single-source suppliers, and high-risk sourcing regions - **Revenue model**: How the business makes money and which products/services drive it - **Time horizons**: Definition of short (e.g., 0–3 yrs), medium (3–10 yrs), long-term (10+ yrs) — or use defaults - **Regulatory context**: Carbon pricing exposure, disclosure mandates, or jurisdiction-specific rules If time horizons are not provided, use short (0–3 years), medium (3–10 years), long (10–30 years). If a specific scenario isn't named, assess against both a 2°C orderly transition and a 4°C high-physical-risk pathway. ## Instructions ### Step 1: Establish Scope and Scenario Frame Anchor the assessment before scoring anything: - Confirm the organizational boundary (operations, value chain, or both) - Set the two scenario lenses: a **transition-heavy scenario** (rapid decarbonization, ~2°C — high policy/market/tech risk) and a **physical-heavy scenario** (limited action, ~4°C — high acute/chronic risk) - Map the time horizons to the business's planning and investment cycles ### Step 2: Identify Physical Risks Catalog risks tied to the physical effects of climate change, split into two types. **Acute (event-driven) risks** — assess relevance of each to the asset base and geographies: - Flooding (river, coastal, surface water) - Tropical cyclones / severe storms / wind damage - Wildfire - Extreme heat events - Drought-driven water scarcity **Chronic (long-term shift) risks**: - Rising mean temperatures affecting operations, labor, or yields - Sea-level rise threatening coastal assets - Changing precipitation patterns and water availability - Permanent shifts in growing seasons or resource viability For each physical risk flagged as relevant, note: the exposed asset/operation, the geography, the affected time horizon, and the transmission channel to the business (e.g., production halt, asset damage, supply disruption). ### Step 3: Identify Transition Risks Catalog risks from the shift to a lower-carbon economy across four TCFD categories. **Policy & Legal**: Carbon pricing/taxes, emissions caps, disclosure mandates, litigation exposure, building/efficiency standards. **Technology**: Stranded assets from low-carbon substitution, cost of transitioning processes, failed technology bets. **Market**: Shifting customer demand, rising cost or scarcity of carbon-intensive inputs, changing energy prices. **Reputation**: Stakeholder and investor pressure, brand exposure on emissions, sector stigmatization. For each transition risk flagged as relevant, note: the driver, the time horizon when it bites, and the transmission channel (cost increase, revenue loss, asset write-down, cost of capital). ### Step 4: Score Each Risk Apply a consistent two-dimensional scoring model to every identified risk. **Likelihood** (within the relevant time horizon and scenario): - Rare / Unlikely / Possible / Likely / Almost Certain (1–5) **Financial impact** (against revenue, EBITDA, or asset value — state the basis): - Insignificant / Minor / Moderate / Major / Severe (1–5) - Where possible, attach a rough quantified range or % of revenue/EBITDA exposed **Risk rating** = Likelihood × Impact, banded: - 1–4 Low / 5–9 Medium / 10–15 High / 16–25 Critical Note the velocity (how fast the risk materializes) for any High or Critical risk, since slow-onset risks allow more mitigation runway. ### Step 5: Build the Risk Register Compile all scored risks into a single register, sorted by risk rating (Critical first). Each row includes: - Risk ID and name - Type (Physical-Acute / Physical-Chronic / Transition-Policy / -Technology / -Market / -Reputation) - Scenario and time horizon - Likelihood (1–5), Financial impact (1–5), Risk rating + band - Transmission channel to financials - Mitigation recommendation ### Step 6: Recommend Mitigations For each High and Critical risk, provide a specific, actionable mitigation: - Name the action (e.g., relocate distribution center out of 1-in-100 floodplain; hedge carbon-input cost; diversify single-source supplier in drought region) - State the risk-reduction lever (avoid / reduce / transfer / accept) - Note rough effort/cost level and the residual risk after mitigation ### Step 7: Summarize Top Exposures Close with a board-ready summary: the 3–5 most material risks, total estimated exposure if quantifiable, and the top 3 mitigation priorities to fund first. ## Output Format - **Structure**: Scope/scenario frame → physical risk inventory → transition risk inventory → scoring methodology note → full risk register (table) → mitigation detail for High/Critical risks → executive summary - **Length**: 1,200–1,800 words plus the register table - **Format**: Structured document with one register table; mitigations and summary in structured bullets - **Sections**: Scope & Scenarios → Physical Risks → Transition Risks → Scoring Methodology → Risk Register → Mitigation Recommendations → Top Exposures Summary - **Tone**: Risk-committee analytical — precise, defensible, no alarmism and no greenwashing; every claim tied to a transmission channel ## Quality Checklist Before delivering output, verify: - [ ] Both physical (acute + chronic) and transition (all 4 TCFD categories) risks are covered — none of the six types is empty without justification - [ ] Every risk in the register has a likelihood score, an impact score, and a calculated risk rating + band - [ ] Each risk states a specific transmission channel to financials — not a generic "could be costly" - [ ] The register is sorted by risk rating with Critical/High risks at the top - [ ] Every High and Critical risk has a named mitigation with a risk-reduction lever and residual risk - [ ] Risks are tied to the company's actual geographies, assets, and supply chain — not a generic sector list - [ ] The executive summary names a specific 3–5 most material risks and top 3 funding priorities ## Notes - Physical risk concentration usually hides in the supply chain, not the company's own footprint — probe single-source suppliers in high-exposure regions - Transition risk timing is the hard part: a risk can be "almost certain" in the long term but "rare" in the short term — always score against the stated horizon - If financial figures aren't available, score impact qualitatively but flag which risks most warrant a quantified follow-up study - This assessment supports TCFD's "Risk Management" and "Strategy" pillars; pair it with scenario analysis and metrics/targets work for full disclosure readiness --- ## How to use this skill This file is a Claude Code skill in [Anthropic's standard format](https://docs.anthropic.com/en/docs/claude-code/skills) — markdown with YAML frontmatter at the top. **Installing in Claude Code:** - `~/.claude/skills//SKILL.md` — auto-loads in every session anywhere on your machine (recommended for skills you'll use across multiple projects) - `/.claude/skills//SKILL.md` — auto-loads only when working in that project (recommended for project-specific skills) Restart Claude Code or open a new session to register. **Using in Claude.ai, ChatGPT, Gemini, or other AI tools:** 1. 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