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Chase & express opportunity identifier

Analyzes in-season sell-through, on-hand inventory, weeks-of-supply, and remaining life-of-season to flag styles eligible for chase (reorder) or express (air-freight) buys, quantifying incremental revenue, recommending…

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Purpose

Turn raw in-season sell-through and inventory data into a ranked list of chase and express buy opportunities — quantifying the incremental revenue at stake, the recommended reorder quantity, and whether the sales velocity justifies the added cost of expedited freight before the selling window closes.

When to Use

Invoke this skill when the user asks to:

  • Review in-season performance and decide which styles to reorder
  • Identify hot sellers that are selling faster than the plan
  • Determine whether a fast-moving style justifies air freight vs. ocean
  • Quantify lost revenue risk from stocking out before end of season
  • Build a chase list for an upcoming buy meeting or open-to-buy review
  • Prioritize reorders when reorder budget is limited

Inputs Required

Before starting, collect:

  • Style-level data: For each style — units sold to date, current on-hand units, on-order units (if any), and original season buy quantity
  • Sell-through method: Weeks of sales history available, and whether to use trailing 4-week or life-to-date velocity
  • Season timeline: Weeks remaining in the selling season for each style (or a shared end date)
  • Unit economics: Average selling price and unit margin (or margin %) per style, or a blended figure
  • Lead times: Standard replenishment lead time and express/air lead time in weeks
  • Expedite cost: Incremental per-unit air-freight premium vs. standard freight
  • Reorder budget (optional): Available open-to-buy dollars if the chase list must be constrained

If margin, lead times, or expedite cost are missing, use category-typical defaults (55% apparel gross margin, 12-week standard / 3-week express lead time, $2.50/unit air premium) and flag every assumption at the top.

Instructions

Step 1: Calculate Velocity and Weeks of Supply

For each style:

  1. Weekly sell rate = units sold ÷ weeks of history (use trailing 4-week if a style has a clear trend break; otherwise life-to-date)
  2. Weeks of supply (WOS) = current on-hand ÷ weekly sell rate
  3. Projected stockout week = today + WOS
  4. Flag styles where projected stockout week occurs before the season end date — these are the candidate pool. Styles with WOS ≥ weeks remaining are already covered and drop out.

Step 2: Segment Candidates by Urgency Tier

Sort the candidate pool into three tiers by the gap between stockout timing and lead time:

  • Express tier: Stockout arrives before standard lead time can replenish (WOS < standard lead time). Only air freight can land units in time to sell.
  • Chase tier: Stockout arrives after standard lead time but before season end (standard lead time ≤ WOS < weeks remaining). A normal reorder lands in time.
  • Watch tier: Selling above plan but currently covered — monitor for acceleration, no buy yet.

Step 3: Size the Recommended Buy

For each Express and Chase candidate:

  1. Sellable weeks after landing = weeks remaining − applicable lead time (express or standard)
  2. Demand during sellable window = weekly sell rate × sellable weeks after landing
  3. Recommended buy quantity = demand during sellable window − any units already on-order, rounded to the nearest inner/case pack if pack sizes are known. Never recommend a buy that lands with fewer than 2 sellable weeks — the unit risk outweighs the upside.

Step 4: Quantify Incremental Revenue and ROI

For each candidate:

  1. Incremental revenue = recommended buy qty × ASP (units expected to sell, not held)
  2. Incremental margin = recommended buy qty × unit margin
  3. Express cost (Express tier only) = recommended buy qty × per-unit air premium
  4. Net incremental margin = incremental margin − express cost
  5. Expedite ROI (Express tier) = net incremental margin ÷ express cost. Flag any express buy with ROI below 3:1 as marginal — the velocity likely doesn't justify air freight.

Step 5: Rank and Constrain

  1. Rank all candidates by net incremental margin descending.
  2. If a reorder budget was provided, walk the ranked list and select buys until the budget (at cost) is exhausted; mark the cut line and note the first excluded opportunity's forgone margin.
  3. For any style stocking out within 1 week, elevate to the top regardless of rank and label "act now."

Step 6: Build the Decision Table and Callouts

Assemble the ranked table and write a short decision brief: the total incremental margin available, the express-only subset and its ROI, the single highest-conviction chase, and the one candidate to explicitly pass on and why.

Output Format

  • Structure: Assumptions block → ranked decision table → tier summary → decision brief
  • Length: 500–800 words plus the table
  • Format: One primary table (style, tier, WOS, stockout week, recommended buy qty, incremental margin, express cost, net margin, ROI, verdict) followed by prose brief
  • Sections: Assumptions & Defaults → Chase/Express Decision Table → Urgency Tier Summary → Decision Brief (top chase, express subset, pass recommendation, budget cut line if applicable)
  • Tone: Merchandise planning lead — quantitative, decisive, buy-meeting-ready; every recommendation carries a number, never "this looks good"

Quality Checklist

Before delivering output, verify:

  • [ ] Every candidate style has a calculated WOS and projected stockout week
  • [ ] Each candidate is assigned exactly one tier (Express / Chase / Watch) with the tier logic applied consistently
  • [ ] Recommended buy quantities account for lead time — never sized to demand that can't be sold before season end
  • [ ] Every Express buy shows an ROI figure and any ROI below 3:1 is flagged as marginal
  • [ ] The table is ranked by net incremental margin descending, with any 1-week stockouts elevated and labeled
  • [ ] All assumed defaults (margin, lead times, expedite cost) are listed explicitly at the top

Notes

  • Trailing 4-week velocity beats life-to-date when a style has recently caught fire — a slow launch can mask true current demand; call out which method was used per style if they differ.
  • The most common planner error is chasing a hot style too late — by the time WOS confirms the trend, standard lead time can't land units in the window. That is precisely what the Express tier catches.
  • Passing on a low-ROI express buy is a real recommendation, not a non-answer. Naming one style to skip signals the analysis has a spine.
  • If pack sizes and on-order quantities are unavailable, note that recommended quantities are directional and should be reconciled against the vendor's minimums before the buy is placed.

How to use this skill

This file is a Claude Code skill in Anthropic's standard format — markdown with YAML frontmatter at the top.

Installing in Claude Code:

  • ~/.claude/skills/<folder-name>/SKILL.md — auto-loads in every session anywhere on your machine (recommended for skills you'll use across multiple projects)
  • <your-project>/.claude/skills/<folder-name>/SKILL.md — auto-loads only when working in that project (recommended for project-specific skills)

Restart Claude Code or open a new session to register.

Using in Claude.ai, ChatGPT, Gemini, or other AI tools:

  1. Drag this file into a new chat, or copy and paste its contents
  2. Send your task or request as your next message — the AI will apply the skill where it fits

For Claude Code skill details: https://docs.anthropic.com/en/docs/claude-code/skills