---
name: application-incident-root-cause-analyzer
description: "Produces a structured post-incident root cause analysis using 5 Whys and fishbone methodology, categorizing contributing factors across code, config, infrastructure, and process, with a ranked corrective action plan and blameless timeline reconstruction. Use when conducting a post-incident review, writing a postmortem, diagnosing why a production incident occurred, or identifying corrective actions after an outage."
argument-hint: "[incident-summary] [change-log]"
allowed-tools: ["Read"]
---

# Application Incident Root Cause Analyzer

## Purpose
Transform raw incident data — timeline, symptoms, topology, and change log — into a rigorous, blameless root cause analysis that separates the triggering cause from contributing factors and outputs prioritized corrective actions. Eliminates shallow "human error" conclusions and produces a postmortem an engineering organization can act on.

## When to Use
Invoke this skill when the user asks to:
- Conduct a post-incident review or write a postmortem
- Determine why a production outage or degradation occurred
- Analyze an incident using 5 Whys or fishbone methodology
- Identify contributing factors and corrective actions after an incident
- Reconstruct an incident timeline and pinpoint the root cause
- Prepare a blameless RCA document for stakeholders or leadership

## Inputs Required
Before starting, collect:
- **Incident summary**: What broke, user-facing impact, severity/priority level
- **Incident timeline**: Timestamped sequence — detection, escalation, mitigation, resolution (include time-to-detect and time-to-resolve if available)
- **Symptoms observed**: Error messages, alerts, metrics/graphs, log excerpts, affected endpoints or services
- **System topology**: Affected services and their dependencies (databases, queues, upstream/downstream services, third parties)
- **Change log**: Deploys, config changes, infra changes, feature flags, or schedule changes in the window before the incident
- **Detection method**: How the incident was noticed (alert, customer report, monitoring, manual)
- **Mitigation taken**: What action stopped the impact (rollback, restart, scale, failover, config revert)

If the change log is missing, treat "no recorded change" as a finding and flag change-tracking as a process gap. Default severity to Sev-2 if unstated.

## Instructions

### Step 1: Reconstruct the Blameless Timeline
Build a clean, factual sequence of events. For each entry: timestamp, event, actor (system or role — never named individuals), and evidence source.
- Distinguish **impact start** (when users were affected) from **detection** (when the team knew) from **resolution** (when impact ended)
- Calculate and surface: **time-to-detect (TTD)** and **time-to-resolve (TTR)**
- Flag detection gaps: if TTD is large relative to impact, note it as a monitoring finding for later
- Keep language neutral — "the deploy at 14:02 introduced the regression," not "the engineer broke it"

### Step 2: Establish the Triggering Event
Identify the single change or condition that immediately preceded the failure. Cross-reference the change log against impact start.
- If a change correlates tightly in time, name it as the probable trigger and state the confidence level (High / Medium / Low)
- If no change correlates, investigate load-based, data-based, or dependency-based triggers (traffic spike, poison message, expired cert, upstream degradation)
- State the trigger as a factual claim tied to evidence, not a guess

### Step 3: Run the 5 Whys
Starting from the user-facing symptom, ask "why" iteratively until reaching a systemic cause — not a person.
- **Why 1**: Why did users experience the impact?
- **Why 2**: Why did that condition occur?
- **Why 3**: Why was that condition possible?
- **Why 4**: Why did the system/process allow it?
- **Why 5**: Why did no control catch it earlier?
- Stop when the answer points to a systemic gap (missing test, absent guardrail, gap in review process). If "human error" appears, keep asking — the real root cause is the missing safeguard that let the error reach production.
- Branch when there are two independent causal chains; run 5 Whys on each.

### Step 4: Build the Fishbone (Ishikawa) Analysis
Organize all contributing factors into four categories. A contributing factor made the incident more likely, larger, or longer — but was not necessarily the trigger.

**Code** — logic defects, unhandled edge cases, missing error handling, race conditions, insufficient test coverage, dependency version issues
**Config** — misconfigured limits/timeouts/retries, wrong feature flag state, secrets/cert expiry, environment drift, incorrect scaling thresholds
**Infrastructure** — resource exhaustion (CPU/memory/disk/connections), network/DNS issues, single points of failure, capacity limits, third-party/cloud provider faults
**Process** — inadequate testing/staging, gaps in deploy or rollback procedure, missing monitoring/alerting, insufficient on-call runbook, change management gaps, communication/escalation delays

For each category, list only factors supported by the evidence. Mark each factor as **Root Cause**, **Contributing Factor**, or **Amplifier** (worsened impact/duration without causing it).

### Step 5: State the Root Cause and Contributing Factors
Write a clear root cause statement (2–3 sentences) that a reader unfamiliar with the incident can understand. Then list the ranked contributing factors and amplifiers, each tagged with its fishbone category.

### Step 6: Generate Corrective Actions
Produce corrective actions in three horizons, each mapped to the factor it addresses:
- **Immediate (0–7 days)**: Restore safety — add the missing alert, patch the defect, revert the risky config, add the rollback safeguard
- **Short-term (1–4 weeks)**: Close the systemic gap — add the missing test, fix the deploy pipeline, tune the scaling threshold
- **Long-term (1–3 months)**: Prevent the class of failure — architectural change, remove SPOF, improve change management or observability strategy

For each action include: **owner role** (not a name), **priority** (P0/P1/P2), **the factor it addresses**, and a **detection/prevention improvement** (would this action have caught or prevented this incident?).

### Step 7: Assess Detection and Response
Summarize how well the incident was detected and handled, with specific improvements:
- Was detection automated or reactive? Target: alert before customer report.
- Did the runbook cover this scenario? If not, note the runbook gap.
- Were escalation and communication timely? Flag delays with timestamps.

## Output Format
- **Structure**: Structured postmortem document with clear section headers; timeline as a table; fishbone as four labeled categories; corrective actions as a ranked table
- **Length**: 1,000–1,500 words
- **Format**: Structured document — mix of tables (timeline, corrective actions) and labeled lists (5 Whys, fishbone)
- **Sections**: Incident Summary → Blameless Timeline (table) → Triggering Event → 5 Whys Analysis → Fishbone Contributing Factors (Code/Config/Infra/Process) → Root Cause Statement → Corrective Actions (Immediate/Short-term/Long-term table) → Detection & Response Assessment
- **Tone**: Blameless, analytical, precise — an SRE writing for engineers and leadership. No naming of individuals; systemic focus throughout.

## Quality Checklist
Before delivering output, verify:
- [ ] Timeline separates impact start, detection, and resolution — with TTD and TTR surfaced
- [ ] The 5 Whys terminates at a systemic cause, not "human error" or a named person
- [ ] Every fishbone category (Code, Config, Infrastructure, Process) is addressed — even if only to note "no factors identified"
- [ ] Each contributing factor is tagged Root Cause / Contributing Factor / Amplifier
- [ ] Every corrective action maps to a specific factor and includes owner role, priority, and horizon
- [ ] At least one corrective action improves detection or prevention of this incident class
- [ ] The document contains no individual names — language is blameless throughout

## Notes
- The most common shallow conclusion is stopping the 5 Whys at "someone made a mistake" — the real root cause is always the absent control that let the mistake reach production.
- If two independent causal chains exist (e.g., a code defect AND a missing alert that delayed detection), document both — most serious incidents are multi-causal.
- When the change log shows no changes but impact began suddenly, prioritize data-driven and dependency triggers: poison messages, cert/token expiry, quota exhaustion, and upstream degradation.
- Corrective actions with an owner role and priority but no due horizon tend not to get done — always place each action in a time horizon.

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## How to use this skill

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